Understanding the Freddie Mac House Price Index (FMHPI®)
The Freddie Mac House Price Index (FMHPI®) provides a precise, month-by-month view of U.S. home price trends by tracking repeat sales of the same properties over time—making it more accurate than simple average sale price metrics. Updated through May 2025 and released on June 30, this index is a trusted resource for understanding market shifts in metros like Austin, where price movements reflect both local dynamics and broader economic conditions. Whether you're buying, selling, or analyzing housing trends, the FMHPI® offers critical insights to help you make informed decisions. Explore our latest analysis below and download the full report for a detailed breakdown of Austin’s real estate market performance.
Understanding the Freddie Mac House Price Index (FMHPI®) and Its Impact on the Austin Housing Market – June 2025 Update
The Freddie Mac House Price Index (FMHPI®) remains one of the most respected tools for tracking residential real estate price trends across the United States. Released monthly, this index monitors changes in single-family home values at the national, state, and metro levels. It draws from a comprehensive analysis of conventional, conforming mortgage transactions purchased or securitized by Freddie Mac, providing a standardized and consistent view of home price movement across diverse housing markets.
Unlike local MLS data, which may be influenced by off-market sales, fluctuations in listing practices, or non-standard financing, the FMHPI offers a reliable baseline for evaluating home price performance over time. This makes it particularly useful for economists, real estate professionals, investors, and policymakers who seek to understand macro trends, evaluate market stability, or project future housing affordability. The index presents several key metrics: appreciation from fixed anchor dates (such as January 2020 or May 2022), current month-over-month changes, and year-over-year differences.
In its most recent update released on June 28, 2025, the FMHPI shows that the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown metro area continues to experience the sharpest home price decline from peak levels among the 40 major U.S. metros tracked. Austin home prices are now down 15.0% from their peak in May 2022, widening the gap since the previous report, when the decline stood at 14.4%. This significant correction follows an extraordinary period of price growth during the pandemic years, when Austin attracted a wave of remote workers, tech employees, and out-of-state buyers, pushing values to historic highs.
Since that peak, the combination of rising interest rates, affordability constraints, and record-high inventory has caused a sharp market rebalancing. Austin is also now down 5.4% year over year and has declined another 2.8% month over month, reflecting ongoing softening in home values. By comparison, many other major U.S. markets are holding steady or even posting renewed gains, underscoring how Austin remains one of the more pronounced examples of a post-pandemic market correction.
To add perspective, Austin’s current home prices remain 41.2% higher than pre-pandemic levels (January 2020) and 18.7% higher than January 2021, illustrating how, despite the correction, the long-term price trajectory remains significantly elevated.
While these declines may raise concerns for some homeowners, it’s important to recognize that this market shift reflects a necessary recalibration after unsustainable growth. For buyers, the current environment presents opportunities to negotiate more favorable terms. For sellers, understanding the market’s new pricing dynamics is critical for setting realistic expectations.
As with all data sources, FMHPI should be used alongside local MLS statistics, active listing inventory, and buyer demand indicators to get a full picture of market health. But for long-term price tracking and national comparisons, FMHPI remains a highly reliable benchmark.
FAQ: Freddie Mac House Price Index and Austin’s Market – June 2025
What does the Freddie Mac House Price Index measure?
The FMHPI tracks home price appreciation and depreciation using Freddie Mac’s database of conventional, conforming mortgage transactions. It provides consistent monthly updates on home value trends, including percentage changes from key anchor dates, month-over-month shifts, and year-over-year comparisons. This makes it a reliable tool for understanding home price movement across specific metro areas, states, and the nation as a whole.
Why is Austin still showing the biggest price decline in the index?
Austin experienced one of the most dramatic price booms during the pandemic, driven by a surge of tech workers, remote employees, and out-of-state migration. As interest rates climbed and affordability weakened, demand cooled rapidly. As of June 2025, Austin home prices are down 15.0% from the May 2022 peak—the sharpest decline among major U.S. metros tracked by FMHPI. This correction reflects the market adjusting after a period of extraordinary, unsustainable price growth.
How do Austin’s price trends compare to other major cities?
While Austin leads in terms of peak-to-current declines, many other major metros have shown more resilience. For example, Chicago is up 19.4% from May 2022, New York is up 21.8%, and Milwaukee has gained 21.0%. Some cities, like Denver (-2.1%) and San Francisco (-4.1%), have also seen declines, but none as steep as Austin’s. This underscores how localized economic factors and previous price run-ups significantly influence post-pandemic corrections.
Is this data a sign of a market crash in Austin?
The data signals a significant correction, not a collapse. Austin home prices are still 41.2% above January 2020 levels, meaning the long-term appreciation remains positive. The market is undergoing a period of rebalancing as high inventory, declining demand, and affordability challenges work through the system. Price declines of this magnitude are a natural consequence of the unsustainable run-up seen during the pandemic.
How can buyers and sellers use this data to make better decisions?
Buyers can leverage FMHPI data to understand long-term price trends and market cycles, helping them negotiate effectively and identify favorable purchase windows. Sellers can compare their local market performance to national trends, adjust pricing expectations, and time listings more strategically. For both groups, FMHPI offers valuable, standardized insights to complement hyperlocal MLS data.
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