Austin Real Estate Market Analysis – June 30, 2025

"The Austin housing market has officially entered unfamiliar territory—where record-breaking inventory meets persistent demand weakness."

The June 30, 2025, Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing paints a clear picture of an evolving market that continues to favor buyers, with all key indicators reinforcing a protracted market correction. With active residential listings now at 18,146, the Austin area has set a new all-time inventory record, surpassing the previous high reached just three days prior. The scale and pace of this inventory buildup are unprecedented, providing buyers with more options than ever but also signaling significant structural imbalances in the market.

Over half of all active listings—56.8% to be precise—have experienced at least one price drop. This rate of price reductions speaks to the softening demand and sellers' growing acknowledgment that pricing expectations must adjust to current market realities. In submarkets like Georgetown, Hutto, and Liberty Hill, price reduction rates exceed 60%, underscoring regional pressure points where inventory has surged fastest.

The Activity Index, a reliable measure of market velocity, has fallen to 19.7%, down 16.8% from this time last year. This represents a marked cooling of buyer activity, confirming that the heightened inventory is not being absorbed at a pace sufficient to stabilize the market. Months of Inventory (MOI) has climbed to 6.51, a level firmly within buyer's market territory based on Team Price Real Estate's conservative threshold of 7 months for clear buyer advantage. It's worth noting that in the City of Austin, MOI has increased 17.4% year over year and a staggering 34.7% since January, providing further evidence of demand weakness even within Austin’s urban core.

New listing activity has remained robust, with 29,684 cumulative new listings from January through June, a 7.6% year-over-year increase and an astonishing 31.7% above the 25-year average. However, pending sales have not kept pace. Year-to-date cumulative pending listings sit at 22,671, down 6.4% compared to last year, despite being 3.6% above long-term norms. The widening gap between new listings and pending sales—currently a cumulative difference of 7,013—has driven the New Listing to Pending Ratio down to 0.66, well below the historical average of 0.81. This ratio reflects the growing supply-demand imbalance, where new inventory is entering the market at a far greater rate than buyer commitments.

The price trends further reinforce the market correction narrative. The median sold price now stands at $450,000, representing an 18.18% decline from the market peak of $550,000 in May 2022. The average sold price has fallen to $594,275, down 12.86%, or roughly $88,000 from the peak. These figures reflect broad-based price declines that have eroded the significant equity gains seen during the pandemic-era housing boom.

Examining price performance across different market segments reveals further stratification. Properties in the bottom 25th percentile have experienced price declines of 3.8%, with price per square foot dropping 4.7%. Conversely, properties in the top 25th percentile have shown modest resilience, with a 2.0% increase in price and a slight 0.5% uptick in price per square foot. This divergence suggests continued strength in the upper-end market, likely fueled by cash buyers or those less reliant on traditional financing, while entry-level and mid-tier segments face more pronounced affordability challenges.

The 25-year compound appreciation rate for Austin real estate is 4.981%. Using this rate, it is projected to take 52 months—until approximately September 2029—for the median sold price to return to its 2022 peak of $551,386, assuming the current market bottom holds. This timeline reflects the depth of the correction and offers realistic expectations for both buyers and sellers.

Sales density metrics confirm the market's sluggish pace. Year-to-date, 14,942 properties have sold, down 6.5% from 2024, though still 8.1% above the long-term average. However, when normalized for population growth and the expanding realtor base, the picture becomes more concerning. Cumulative sales per 100,000 residents have declined 8.7% year over year and sit 20.1% below average. Sales per 1,000 realtors are down 2.5% year over year and remain 24.3% below average, highlighting oversaturation within the agent community relative to actual transaction volume.

Market health indicators further support the buyer-favorable narrative. The Market Health Index (MHI) sits at just 15.8%, with readings below 30% historically indicating a buyer's market. Similarly, the Inventory Stress Index (ISI) is 3.8%, well below the 10% threshold that typically signals seller leverage. These indices, coupled with declining prices and elevated inventory, solidify the conclusion that buyers now hold a distinct advantage in negotiations.

Looking at city-specific data, several markets have seen inventory surge dramatically. Marble Falls, Manchaca, Jarrell, and Cedar Creek have experienced MOI increases exceeding 70% year over year, with some doubling in inventory levels. Even within Austin proper, inventory has risen 17.4% year over year, reinforcing that the softening market conditions are not limited to peripheral communities but extend into the heart of the metro area.

In summary, the Austin housing market continues its correction, driven by record-high inventory, subdued buyer activity, and persistent affordability headwinds. Sellers face a challenging environment where realistic pricing and strategic negotiation are essential. Buyers, on the other hand, are entering one of the most favorable markets in over a decade, with abundant choices, negotiable pricing, and declining competition.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for June 30, 2025.​